FANG’s Lay an Egg

The attack on the FANG’s is the second attack of 2018. The first was the short volatility trade that blew up in February. Each attack has a lasting effect on the market. The short vol trade suppressed the price of volatility which helped elevate stock prices. The dismantling of this trade is still reverberating through markets. The next break down is what we call the shooting of the Generals. The leaders of the market have been producing an outsized portion of the gains and those leaders are now being questioned by the market. The move lower in the FANG’s has the market on its heels and investors are nervous. Where will the new market leadership come from? When will it arrive? This is a tough blow for stocks. New leadership cannot come quickly enough and large enough to steady the market. Tech is 25% of the S&P 500 with Apple, Amazon , Google, Microsoft and Facebook making up 14% of the S&P 500. You can see how weakness in just those five stocks will have an outsized negative effect on the S&P 500. The Generals of the market are the leaders. Those leaders, when shot, need to be replaced before the market loses confidence. The market is growing increasingly rudderless. There will be a third shoe to drop.

The FANG’s (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, NetFlix, Google)moved even lower this week as the bears took full control. They are oversold and due for a bounce as is the market. Unfortunately, the bounces that are coming are of the bear market variety. They are very large bounces on light volume. Bear market rallies rise sharply and die in low volume.

The longer the gaps stay unfilled at 2850 and 2700 the more they are validated. The 200 DMA is the key as the market has used it as support but the bulls just can’t get lift off especially as the FANG’s are taking such a pounding. April is, historically, the best month for the Dow. Unfortunately, that number dips in midterm election years. New money for the new month could help but if it doesn’t – watch out. We still anticipate a move to at least touch and test 2550. We do not think the street has studied for the test and may fail. But first, we should see some bounce to test 2700-2750 at the very least. If we don’t retest then that is another win for the bears.

A short one today as it is Easter Sunday. We will also have an abbreviated note next week as we tee up our quarterly letter.

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I think we aspire less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner… you can respond very fast to what’s happening because you thought through all the possibilities, – Lloyd  Blankfein

To learn more about us and Blackthorn Asset Management LLC visit our website at www.BlackthornAsset.com .

 

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. – Winston Churchill

 

Disclosure: This blog is informational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. If you are thinking about investing consider the risk. Everyone’s financial situation is different. Consult your financial advisor.

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